According to the 2017 Census, so that’s 88 million households that buy candles. Let’s say each household buys at least one candle a year. Since you are a new business, your conservative guess is that you can capture 1% of that market, giving you 880,000 customers. At first glance, this seems optimistic. Why? You have not factored in your business model — how many salespeople do you have? Can you sell to the entire US or should you maximize a specific region. Can you make 880,000 candles in a year? The Bottom-Up Approach This approach will give you a smaller forecast
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But more realistic figures as it takes into consideration actual numbers and your own output capacity. Pro tip: Check public company annual reports and filings to help determine financial and product information about potential competitors. Comparing competitor Sri Lanka Email Database information against your own business model will give you more insight. Back to our candle example: You know you can produce 100 candles a month. You know the average mass-produced candle sells for $1.99, but handmade candles retail between $8 and $15. You decide to price your candles at $10 each.
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You set a modest goal to sell 25 candles a month, increasing to 50 candles a month during the holiday season . Spreadsheet showing the sales forecast for a product for the 1st year With this model, $3,000 is the profit from one year of business. Using modest projections. You can then increase your units sold, and price in the following 2-5 years at an incremental rate. So in year two, you sell 50 candles off-season and 75 during the holiday season. By year three, your ability to produce could increase by bringing on a second maker or dedicating more time to candle creation.